Monthly Archives: March 2004

Buffett Reloaded

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I posted the following on the Motley Fool HG Valutaion board, sort of an improvement on an earlier journal entry I had made. So I thought I’d put it here too, for posterity. It also gives me an excuse to try out the lj cut function. And reveal what a total geek I am, in case there was any confusion on that point.

Back in December 2001, Warren Buffett wrote an article for Fortune magazine, which was a followup to a November 1999 article about the valuation of the stock market (actually, it had a lot of good stuff in it, but overall market valuation is what I’m going to discuss here).

continued…

Warren’s Market

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Warren Buffett wrote an article in Fortune a while back where he showed some numbers that stated there was a bubble. He wrote it in 1999, and then another followup in 2001.

Basically, he had a chart going back 80 years that showed the total value of the stock market as a percentage of the GNP. For the greater part of the time period, the stock market hovered around 70-90% of the GNP. With a few exceptions: 1998, and 1929. In 1998, it reached 200%, in 1929, it was something less than that (160%?).

His point being at the time that he didn’t find equities appealing. In the 2001 article, he showed it still being around 130%.

He hasn’t updated us lately, so I thought I’d do a few updated calcs.

I couldn’t find the total market value anywhere, so I used the S&P 500 index as a stand-in, and I found some historical GDP instead of GNP, but they’re usually pretty close.

So:

beginning of 2001:

GDP: 9953
S&P: 1320

beginning of 2004:
GDP: 11252
S&P: 1111

for 2001, if I played with and normalized the numbers (basically moving the decimal point on the GDP) I calibrate to Warren’s numbers:

1320/995.3 = 133%

So, going forward to 2004:

1125/1111 = 101%

Warren says that 80-90% gives good odds for stock investment in general.

So, we’re not out of the woods, but getting there.

Overheard at OfficeMax

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I was in OfficeMax today and I was standing next to a lady in the organizer aisle. All of a sudden, a young guy stops and talks to her:

Young Man: Excuse me, but I see you in here all the time and you always look so good. Always so professional, I just wanted to tell you that.

Woman: (unnerved) Uh… well, thank you. I… I buy my office supplies here, that’s why I come.

YM: Well, you look fabulous. What line of work are you in?

Woman: I’m a realtor, I just needed to pick up an organizer–

YM: A realtor, how great! Where do you work generally?

W: Well, I used to be in Florida, but now I work north Atlanta bec–

YM: I’m from Florida! What part?!

W: Uh, Tampa.

YM: Me, too! Listen, I just have to give you my card. If you’re ever thinking of changing careers, I could use someone like you. A lot of people who work with us used to be in real estate. I work for Mary Kay…

W: Oh, I don’t–

YM: Don’t worry I don’t sell anything. I’ve got more important things to do than hawk lipstick. I’m in the seminar-giving part, we teach people about leadership. You’d be great. Do you have a card with you?

W: Well, yes, somewhere (shuffles in purse)

YM: Here’s mine. I just think you’d be fabulous at our seminars.

W: I should have a card more ready, I suppose, as a realtor, but–

YM: I know what you mean. They’re hard to keep up with, those things.

W: Here.

YM: Great! I’m definitely going to give you a call. You’d be great. It was great meeting you! I’ve got to go get MY office supplies! (walks away)

(beat)

W: (turning to me) That was the oddest thing that’s happened to me in a long time.

Me: I’m so excited I could be here for it.

W: (laughs, and walks away shaking her head)

Electric Line Internet

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I just read in a Wall Street Journal in our breakroom that Cinergy, Cincinnati’s power utility, is going to start offering internet access comparable or better than cable/DSL to folks in Cincinnati.

This is fantastic.

I don’t want cable, so getting a cable modem doesn’t make sense. I don’t need a telephone land line, since Stacey and I have cellphones. But I have to have one to get internet access in our home. But if it were available through the electrical outlet… that’d be sweet. Ditch the landline totally.

Unfortunately, it may be a fair amount of time away. They’ll be targeting rural areas that don’t have cable/DSL options first, before moving into the big cities.

I’ll just bide my time.

Headset!

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They placed a headset on order for me!

I discovered the way to go about it is to just ask the woman who’s in charge of office supplies to order one. Apparently, I don’t NEED permission from higher ups or the IT guy in charge of phone systems. Go figure.

I also asked for a new desk calendar and laboratory notebook. I’m gonna be so stylin’ with my new office supplies here pretty soon. I feel like Herbert Kornfield or whatever his name is from The Onion.

Book Log – Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them

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Just finished

Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them: A Fair and Balanced look at the Right. – Al Franken

More interesting-funny than funny-funny, but I liked it. It almost makes up for “Oh! The things I know!”, that piece of crap little nothing book he wrote.

I was going to wait until it came out on paperback, but I got stuck without a book to read at lunch, and the only bookstore I was near didn’t have anything good in paperback.