Tag Archives: book log

Book Log – What Are The Odds? Chance in Everyday Life

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What Are The Odds? Chance in Everyday Life by Mike Orkin

My friend J_ from high school recommended this book, and then gave me a copy when he was in town last. He had brought it up when we were discussing coincidence versus omens on our high school drama alumni message board a while back.

It’s a slim book with not much math to it. It covers some basic probability, some long odds stuff like lotteries, and then delves into 4 chapters on gambling (where I learned the rules of craps). The last three chapters are on game theory, such as the Prisoner’s Dilemma, and then attempts to apply game theory to the conflict between NATO and Yugoslavia.

Aside from the rules of craps, I didn’t pick up much new from this book, though I appreciate going over covered grounds in a fresh way. The language is very accessible even to the non mathematically minded.

I come away from the book wondering if the point of the book was to discuss probability theory, or to pull people in with probability theory and then explain what NATO did wrong in Yugoslavia. The last chapter of the book has language that deviates from the more specifically analytical tone of the earlier parts, and basically boils down to “NATO didn’t consider the long term consequences”, which is associated with the game theory strategies, sure, but without a more extensive overall analysis of the choices it just feels like preaching.

The book was published in January, 2000 (apparently now out of print). The NATO bombing of Yugoslavia had ended 6 months before. It seems like Mike Orkin got riled up by the NATO bombing and whipped out a quick book in his discipline so he could add his two cents to the debate.

So, there are probably better probability books out there.

But that didn’t stop me from being in a probability frame of mind when terracinque brought up relative genetic similarity in siblings and parent/children. With some refresher genetics research, I learned that siblings share anywhere between 0% and 100% of their genes. So, it is theoretically possible that you could have no chromosomes in common with your sibling, meaning for each chromosome pair in both parents, you inherited the opposite one than your theoretical sibling.

terracinque countered that “[t]he chance of two siblings with the same parents sharing zero genes must be so close to zero that I will state with confidence that it has never happened in the entire history of Mammalia.” With my mind fresh from probability reading, I did the math:

We can calculate the odds… according to this “tour of the basics” of genetics (http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/units/basics/tour/), each parent has 2 sets of 23 chromosomes, call them A and B, of which they received one from his/her dad, one from his/her mom.

But when they contribute one half their chromosomes to their child, they can take a little from column A, a little from column B to put together a 23 chromosome set.

So, for a 0% matching sibling set, each child must have gotten A where the other got B in each instance of 46 chromosomes. (As a by-product of this requirement, our theoretical siblings must not be of the same gender… both brothers means they share the father’s Y, both sisters means they share the father’s X)

So, with a 50/50 chance of getting the opposite chromosome on any given pair as a given sibling, I believe the odds are (0.5)^46, or 1.42e-14, or 1.42e-12%, or 1 in 70.4 trillion for humans1. If I’m remembering my probability calculations correctly. So, not likely, even with all the siblings in history.

The kangaroo (and marsupials in general), however, may be a different story. Wikipedia says 12 chromosomes (6 pairs), another source I saw said 14 (7 pairs). So, the worst case odds become (0.5)^14, or 0.006% or 1 in 16,384.

Which is why you see so much squabbling in kangaroo families.

Out of curiosity, I looked up how many humans there have been, because due to the law of very large numbers, even the highly improbable becomes probable when you have a lot of chances (otherwise, no one would ever win the lottery). According to this analysis, 106,456,367,669 humans have been born between 50,000 B.C. and 2002. If we assume that all those people had a sibling, that makes roughly 53 billion sibling pairs. So, with a 1 in 70.4 trillion chance, 53 billion tries probably isn’t enough to make the improbable probable.

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1 Also roughly the odds that Marty McFly would still be the same Marty McFly after he messed up his parent’s meeting.

Book Log – The Cobweb

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The Cobweb by Stephen Bury (AKA Neal Stephenson and J. Frederick George (AKA George F. Jewsbury))

The Cobweb is the second of two books written by Stephen Bury, which is the pseudonym of Neal Stephenson and his uncle, J. Frederick George, which is actually a pseudonym for his real uncle, George Jewsbury. The other novel was Interface.

Strangely, in my log of Interface, I go fairly easy on the book. In fact, I was greatly disappointed in it for its huge, unbelieavable plot holes. I felt that the The Big U, Stephenson’s first novel and one he reportedly cringes at, was better. I blamed his uncle, J. Frederick George, for the poor plotting, since everything else prior to Interface was just plain good (Zodiac, Snow Crash).

But Stephenson and Jewsbury must have figured out how to work together, because The Cobweb is a much better read, and tighter in the plotting. Essentially a political detective story,The Cobweb concerns a small town Deputy Sheriff who stumbles upon a mystery that has global repercussions, including effecting his wife who is serving as a nurse in Operation Desert Shield/Storm. President Bush the First has a few scenes, where he is portrayed as a sympathetic character greatly concerned about the human impact of his actions. This characteristic is viewed as a flaw by his underlings.

The title comes from a political tactic where you block someone’s actions by bogging them down in bureaucratic busy work, appointing them to special pointless committees and whatnot: “cobwebbing”.

My only disappointment was a deus ex machina at the last moment which could have been easily avoided.

Also, how believable is it that this Deputy could solve an international conspiracy while taking care of a 6 month old alone? Please. I can’t even get to the bathroom unless steakums is around.

Book Log – The Devil in the White City: Murder, Magic, and Madness at the Fair that Changed America

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The Devil in the White City: Murder, Magic, and Madness at the Fair that Changed America by Erik Larson

curt_holman‘s read-bag review piqued my interest in this book, primarily due to my casual interest in circa 1900 technology and entrepreneurship.

Here’s Curt’s synopsis of the subject: “This lively history text follows narratives on two tracks, primarily (but not exclusively) based in Chicago. Track One depicts the tumultuous planning, construction, implementation and aftermath of the Chicago World’s Fair of 1893 (technically the “World Columbian Exposition”), primarily from the point of view of chief architect Daniel Burnham. Track Two recounts the horrific practices of H.H. Holmes, a charismatic doctor, landlord, pharmacist, fraud and serial killer.”

The catch is that I’ve little interest in (and somewhat of an aversion to) crime stories, which the second track definitively is. So I was jerked between being fascinated in a good way and repulsed in a bad way as the story jumped between the tracks. I considered just reading the story of the fair, but the book is well written and engaging enough that skipping sections felt wrong. Kind of like seeing candy in a bowl and being unable to stop eating until you get that sick feeling once the bowl is empty.

But aside from the sugar-crash, it’s a good read. I learned a few things about good old Chicago’s history, which I miss just a little bit more than the other cities I’ve lived in.

Book Log – The Man With Two Left Feet

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The Man With Two Left Feet by P.G. Wodehouse

Another Wodehouse collection of short stories available from Project Gutenberg.

Quote from a Jeeves and Wooster story, Extricating Young Gussie.

New York is a large city conveniently situated on the edge of America, so that you step off the liner right on to it without an effort. You can’t lose your way. You go out of a barn and down some stairs, and there you are, right in among it.

What’s odd about this Jeeves and Wooster story is that Jeeves plays almost no part in it, aside from a few “yes, sir”s and “What suit would you like to wear?” As such, it really isn’t a Jeeves and Wooster story except in name. It’s as if Wodehouse had the idea for a story but couldn’t be bothered to invent some new characters to tell it. Odd, that.

Otherwise, standard issue Wodehouse.

Book Log – The Man Upstairs and Other Stories

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The Man Upstairs and Other Stories by P.G. Wodehouse

A fine collection of a-musing short stories.

My favorite quote, from the short story Ahead of Schedule:

“Even as a boy, hardly capable of connected thought, he had been convinced that his specialty, the one thing he could do really well, was to inherit money. All he wanted was a chance.”

Book Log – Warren Buffett: An Illustrated Biography of the World’s Most Successful Investor

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Warren Buffett: An Illustrated Biography of the World’s Most Successful Investor by Ayano Morio (translated from original Japanese version)

I picked this up at Berkstock, intrigued by how a Japanese graphic novelist would view Buffett’s story. Would he have Warren performing Matrix-like kicks to the face of competitors? Would he have an energy pulse exploding from his hands into the ticker machine, causing prices to rise or fall at will? Who knew?

Turns out, it’s a fairly simplified version of Roger Lowenstein’s Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist, with pictures, which have little to add to a story with few (or rather, no) action sequences.

Which anyone could have guessed; On the back of the book are a bunch of raving quotes… about Buffett himself, rather than the graphic novel.

Book Log – Love Among The Chickens

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Love Among The Chickens by P.G. Wodehouse
[via Project Gutenberg]

A Ukridge story, another of Wodehouse’s eccentrics. Clueless city-dweller attempts to start a chicken farm with no notion of how to raise chickens. He for some reason figures that if you can incubate an egg in 1 week by setting it at temperature X, you should be able to incubate it in 2 weeks set at temperature 1/2 X…. silly stuff like that.

An okay Wodehouse, of novelette length.

Book Log – Emma

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Emma by Jane Austen

“That is the case with us all, papa. One half of the world cannot understand the pleasures of the other.”
~ Emma Woodhouse

“You are very fond of bending little minds; but where little minds belong to rich people in authority, I think they have a knack of swelling out, till they are quite as unmanageable as great ones.”
~ Emma Woodhouse.

I think the strongest effect of having read this novel is a strong desire to watch Clueless again. I had forgotten that Emma was the source material for the movie, and I found it very entertaining to consider the particulars of the adaptations made from one to the other. All in all, I believe I’m fairly impressed with the translation.

The second strongest effect is that I really want to incorporate the phrase to own the truth into my conversation.

The third strongest effect is that the concept of overt and formal class distinctions is jarring.

The fourth is that this is a amusing read of a very foreign culture.

Book Log – Fun Home: A Family Tragicomic

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Fun Home: A Family Tragicomic by Alison Bechdel

The second illustrated autobiography of a unusual childhood I’ve read this year, Fun Home is a humor and sorrow filled read. Bechdel, author of the popular Dykes To Watch Out For comic, is extremely adept at creating a mood and atmosphere. The downside is that it’s a melancholy mood that lingers long after you’ve put the book down, but while you’re reading it, it is terribly engrossing.

This is basically the story of Bechdel’s family as affected by the distant and troubled father. There are many parallels drawn between their lives and the classic literature her father obsessively reads. If nothing else, I am left with a feeling of inferiority in my aptitude for literary analysis.

Extremely well drawn, extremely well told.

Book Log – Please, Mr. Einstein (abandoned)

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Please, Mr. Einstein by Jean-Claude Carriere (abandoned)

This was a book I put on my wishlist, though I can’t remember why, now. A recommendation from someone? Dunno.

And someone got it for me for Xmas. Which really makes me want to read it and enjoy it, because I said I wanted it through my wishlist. The thing about asking for something for Xmas is that while people sometimes feel a little uncreative for resorting to what you asked for instead of surprising you with something you didn’t even know you wanted, they get the consolation of being “guaranteed” to have gotten you something you will enjoy. Boy, that’s a convoluted sentence.

At any rate, I didn’t enjoy this book. So much so, I just can’t finish it. I sloughed through 2/3s of it… that’s all I can handle.

The premise is, a young, nondescript girl from modern day walks into an office because she somehow knows that Albert Einstein will be there. There is a waiting room, filled with folks like Isaac Newton, all waiting to see Einstein. The girl gets in, and Einstein talks about his theories with her. He can open doors, and they walk into different parts of space-time. There is no explanation (though the girl wonders at how this could all be), it is just a convention we accept for the purposes of allowing Einstein to describe his theories to us, and some of his feelings on political situations and results of his theories.

Basically, it’s dumb. And annoying. And not very interesting.

It was done much better (though not great) in the 1982 play Insignificance by Terry Johnson, with the bonus that that play also includes Marilyn Monroe, Joe DiMaggio and Joseph McCarthy as characters. Also, it’s kind of funny.